2/3/2024 0 Comments Signpost transition![]() However, the commercial case for gas looks weaker in many parts of emerging Asia, a key source of demand growth in our projections to 2040. In these countries, there is scope for gas to displace or outcompete other fuels purely on economic grounds. The case for gas can be compelling for countries that have significant resources within relatively easy reach, such as those in the Middle East or in much of North America. There is no such a thing as ‘emerging Asian demand’ This requires a much more granular approach to understand the outlook for gas across this region. A wide variety of starting points and policy, supply security and infrastructure considerations make each emerging Asian market quite distinct. While there appears to be plenty of room for further growth in aggregate, with the share of gas in the region’s energy mix at less than 10%, this does not necessarily mean that all emerging Asian markets are poised to follow the path that China is taking. Gas has been a niche fuel in some markets (such as India) while it is well established in some others (parts of Southeast Asia, Pakistan and Bangladesh). However, although the region is often dubbed “emerging Asia” as a whole, it is difficult to generalise about its gas prospects. Emerging economies in Asia as a whole account for around half of total global gas demand growth in the NPS: their share of global LNG imports doubles to 60% by 2040. While China has been grabbing headlines with its unprecedented growth in demand, other emerging Asian markets – notably India, Southeast Asia and South Asia - are also increasing their presence in the global gas arena. ![]() The “China effect” on gas markets is now becoming a pivotal element for those working in gas markets this is a key reason why gas does relatively well in all the WEO scenarios. China has long driven global trends for oil, coal and, more recently, also for many renewable technologies. Demand for LNG is set to quadruple over the same period, accounting for nearly 30% of global LNG trade flows. In the IEA’s New Policies Scenario (NPS), the share of gas in China’s energy mix is projected to double to 14% by 2040, and most of the increase is met by imports that reach parity with those to the European Union. Preliminary data for 2018 suggest similarly strong double-digit growth, putting China well on track to become the world’s largest gas-importing country. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports grew massively, with China surpassing Korea as the second largest LNG importer in the world. China’s gas demand expanded by a dramatic 15% in 2017, underpinned by a strong policy push for coal-to-gas switching in industry and buildings as part of the drive to “turn China’s skies blue again” and improve air quality. ![]() But China is going for gas, and this surge in consumption has largely erased talk of a global gas glut. Gas accounts for 7% of China’s energy mix today, well below the global average of 22%.
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